Chung Sung-Jun/Getty ImagesSigning the richest contract for a pitcher in MLB history before ever appearing in a big-league game can put extremely high expectations on a player, but Yoshinobu Yamamoto appears to have what it takes to fulfill that potential.
Yamamoto signed a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers in December. The total value of the surpassed Gerrit Cole's $324 million pact with the New York Yankees as the richest for a pitcher.
As for what the Dodgers are likely getting for their money, one scout told ESPN's Kiley McDaniel that Yamamoto "should be a top pitcher in the sport" when he goes through an adjustment period against MLB hitters.
Yamamoto's three spring-training starts have shown the strong potential he possesses, but also some areas where he might struggle initially adapting. His 14 strikeouts in 9.2 innings are very encouraging.
In his most recent spring start on March 13, Yamamoto struck out the first three Seattle Mariners' hitters he faced in the first inning. Each of those at-bats ended with a different pitch. He got J.P. Crawford looking at a fastball, Julio Rodriguez swinging at a curveball and Jorge Polanco swinging over the top of a splitter.
MLB @MLBYoshinobu Yamamoto strikes out the side in the 1st! <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/SpringTraining?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#SpringTraining</a> <a href="https://t.co/OKrpO24LeU">pic.twitter.com/OKrpO24LeU</a>
In that same start, though, the Mariners figured Yamamoto out. He finished the game allowing four earned runs on eight hits in 4.2 innings. The right-hander's previous start against the Chicago White Sox saw him give up five earned runs on six hits in three innings.
Bad spring training starts don't necessarily mean anything. We don't exactly what Yamamoto might be working on going into the season.
One thing McDaniel noticed from Yamamoto's spring starts that might be a concern was his fastball "played below its grade" and 13 of the 16 hard-hit balls he allowed were on the heater:
"In his last Cactus League outing, the Seattle Mariners were clearly aware of his tendency to lead with the fastball: The second time through the lineup, the top six hitters in the lineup basically ambushed first pitch strikes and/or the first fastball he threw in the zone, producing four hits and a deep flyout."
Yamamoto, along with Dodgers catchers, will have to work on pitch-sequencing so hitters know they can't sit on his fastball on the first or second pitch of every at-bat. But his off-speed stuff, which the Mariners couldn't touch in the first inning, is very good.
In particular, Yamamoto's splitter and cutter will probably be his out-pitches. McDaniel noted 18 of the 20 cutters that Yamamoto threw in spring training produced weak contact. His splitter is a potentially elite pitch.
Per The Athletic's Eno Sarris, Yamamoto's splitter rated as a 155 on the Stuff+ metric during the 2023 World Baseball Classic. Stuff+ uses the movement profile of a pitch to estimate how deceptive it is.
Yamamoto's splitter from the 2023 WBC would have rated ahead of Felix Bautista of the Baltimore Orioles and Jhoan Duran of the Minesota Twins (both tied at 149) as the best in MLB last season.
The 25-year-old will make his MLB regular-season debut on Thursday when the Dodgers take on the San Diego Padres in South Korea.
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